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German industrial production rose in December, adding to
signs that Europe’s largest economy is gathering pace.
German industrial production rose in December:
Production increased 0.3 percent from November, when
it fell 0.2 percent, the Economy Ministry in Berlin said today. Economists
forecast a 0.2 percent gain, according to the median of 37 estimates in a Bloomberg
News survey. November output was revised down from an initially reported
0.2 percent increase. From a year earlier, production fell 1.1 percent when
adjusted for working days.
German Industrial Growth |
The economy is rebounding from a contraction at the end of
last year. Business and investor
sentiment improved more than forecast in January and the unemployment rate fell
to 6.8 percent, matching a two-decade low. Factory orders rose 0.8 percent in
December as demand from the euro area, Germany’s biggest export market, surged
7 percent, the Economy Ministry said yesterday.
Recent indicators “lead us to expect that the German economy
expanded noticeably again in the first quarter after a presumably large minus
in the final quarter of 2012,” said Ralph Solveen, an economist at Commerzbank AG in
Frankfurt. “Uncertainty about the future of the monetary union and its
constraining effect on investment is obviously lifting more quickly than we had
previously assumed.”
Manufacturing output rose 1.2 percent in December, with
investment-goods production up 1.9 percent and consumer-goods output jumping
3.9 percent, today’s report showed. Production of basic goods declined 0.7
percent and energy output dropped 3.4 percent. Construction slumped 8.9 percent
from November.
German Industrial Growth in December |
UK industrial output rose 1.1% in December:
The rise - which includes figures for energy production and
mining - was higher than many economists' predictions of a 0.9% rise.
Manufacturing output rose 1.6% for the month, after falling
0.3% in November.
Analysts say the increase will raise hopes that the economy
can avoid another recession.
Despite December's rise, for the three months to the end of
the year, industrial output was 1.9% lower than the previous quarter.
This was the biggest fall since the first quarter of 2009,
and was in large part driven by temporary shutdowns in North Sea oilfields.
However, James Knightley, senior economist at ING, said:
"With more North Sea oil and gas production set to come on stream over the
next couple of months, we anticipate another decent figure next month.
"Furthermore, with the purchasing managers' index for
January also showing growth, this offers further indication that the UK will
probably avoid the fate of dipping into recession three times in the space of
five years."
UK Industrial Output Growth |
Philip Shaw, an economist at Investec, agreed: "The
significant rebound in manufacturing output over December is welcome, which
should help to dispel fears over a triple-dip recession."
But Peter Dixon at Commerzbank was more cautious: "The
key point is manufacturing output is still 1.5% lower than it was a year ago,
so although it was a good month in December, the trend clearly has not been
very friendly over the last 12 months."
Separately, ONS data released on Thursday showed that the
UK's trade deficit in goods narrowed in December as forecast.
The goods trade deficit shrank to £8.89bn from £9.27bn in
November. The consensus forecast among economists was a gap of £8.93bn.
The surplus on trade in services remained the same in
December at £5.7bn.
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